10.24411/1728-323X-2019-12087

Economic, social, political and recreational geography

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCUMULATED DAMAGE AT A REGION LEVEL UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

1. A. L. Novoselov, Ph. D. (Economics), Dr. Habil., Professor, Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.;
2. V. A. Lobkovsky, Ph. D. (Geography), Senior Researcher, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Moscow, Russia

The analysis of the accumulated damage in the regions of the country, the development of projects and programmes for the elimination of accumulated pollution requires special means for economic assessment, allowing us to take into account the damage caused over the past periods before the year of assessment. The article reveals an innovative approach to the economic assessment of the past (accumulated) damage, taking into account the absorption of the region’s territory and the time factor. Since the data on pollution in the past periods are not reliable in general, the minimum expected and the maximum estimates are used as an information base. Due to these estimates, it is proposed to conduct a probabilistic calculation of the past (accumulated) damage in the region. An algorithm for the implementation of the proposed approach and numerical calculation applying specially developed software is given.

economic assessment, accumulated pollution, discounting, pollution absorption, triangular distribution law, Monte-Carlo method, calculation algorithm.

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