10.24411/1728-323X-2019-12077

Economic, social, political and recreational geography

FORECASTING REGIONAL CONFLICTS BETWEEN THE POPULATION AND AN EXTRACTING CORPORATION

I. Yu. Novoselova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), 76 Pr. Vernadskogo, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.;

The article deals with the problem of predicting the occurrence and prevention of conflicts between the local population and the mining corporation when conducting mining in the region. In this paper, we propose to use a special simulation model based on directed graphs. The article provides a basic set of factors that are appropriate to use when building a simulation model. The assessment of the relationship and the weight of the impact of one factor on another is implemented applying expert judgment. The forecasted calculations clearly demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed model. It is noted that, due to transparency, this model can be used to analyze the socio-economic situation in public hearings in the resource region and to involve the local population in the formation of priority compensation projects for socio-economic development. The system of models and methods presented in the article was implemented by the authors in the MS-Excel-VBA system, which made it possible to carry out calculations for the formation of an optimal set of projects for environmentally friendly development. The main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used as a methodological basis and a practical basis for substantiating and choosing compensation projects in order to reduce the severity of environmental and social conflicts.

compensation projects, resource region, regional conflicts, forecast model, oriented graph, interrelation of factors, weight assessment.

1. Aliyev R. A. O., Avramenko A. A. Ekologicheskiye problemy mirovogo TEK. [Environmental problems of world energy industry]. Moscow. 2017. 123 p. [in Russian].
2. Potravnyy I. M., Novoselov A. L., Gengut I. B. Formalizatsiya obshchey modeli zelenoy ekonomiki na regionalnom urovne [Formalization of the general model of green economy at the regional level]. Ekonomika regiona. 2016. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 438—450. [in Russian].
3. Potravnyy I. M., Novoselov A. L., Alnykina E. M. Modeli istoshcheniya prirodnykh resursov i otsenki proshlogo ushcherba ot zagryazneniya okruzhayushchey sredy [Models of exhaustion of natural resources and the assessment of the past damage from environmental pollution]. Plekhanovskiy nauchnyy byulleten. Nauchnyy byulleten Rossiyskogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta imeni G. V. Plekhanova. 2015. No. 2 (8). P. 53—78 [in Russian].
4. Medvedeva O. E. Zadachi otsenki ekologicheskogo ushcherba v arkticheskoy zone [Problems of the assessment of ecological damage in the Arctic zone]. Arktika i Sever. 2015. No. 18. P. 131—147. [in Russian].
5. Tulupov A. S. Vozmeshcheniye ekologicheskogo vreda v ekonomike gornogo proizvodstva [Compensation of an environmen¬tal damage in economy of mining]. Gornyy zhurnal. 2017. No. 8. P. 61—65. [in Russian].
6. Porfiryev B. N., Tulupov A. S. Otsenka ekologicheskoy opasnosti i prognoz ekonomicheskogo ushcherba ot avariynykh situ- atsiy na promyshlennykh predpriyatiyakh [Assessment of the ecological danger and the forecast of economic damage from emergencies at industrial enterprises]. Problemyprognozirovaniya. 2017. No. 6. P. 37—46. [in Russian].
7. Kharchenko S. G., Dorokhina E. Yu. Ekologicheskaya bezopasnost: krizis prodolzhayetsya [Ecology and the industry of Russia]. Ekologiya ipromyshlennost Rossii. 2016. Vol. 20. No. 3. P. 52—57 [in Russian].
8. Dorokhina E. Yu. Industrialnyye i eko-industrialnyye parki kak sredstva preodoleniya regionalnykh konfliktov pri ispolzovanii prirodnykh resursov [Ecology and the industry of Russia]. Problemy regionalnoy ekologii. 2018. No. 2. P. 113—118 [in Russian] [in Russian].
9. Goremykina G. I., Konstantinova O. V. Razrabotka metodologii upravleniya investitsionnymi proyektami na osnove ikh in- stitutsionalnoy otsenki. [Development of methodology of management of investment projects on the basis of their institutional assessment]. RISK: Resursy. informatsiya. snabzheniye. konkurentsiya. 2017. No. 2. P. 226—231 [in Russian]