Section

Nature use economics

Title

MODELLING PRICE INFLUENCE ON HYDROCARBONS AND OTHER RISK FACTORS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMMERCIAL INTERCOURSES BETWEEN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

Сontributors

P. V. Osipova, M.Sc., Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.;

L. G. Lobkovskaya, Dr. Sc. (Geography), researcher, Institutr of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The work is to evaluate trends in the development of trade relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus within the Customs Union risk- adjusted on the basis of mathematical and analytical methods. The author examines two models for forecasting the development of international trade — econometric model and the scenario tree in conjunction with the Monte Carlo method. The results of testing showed that the latest model has more flexibility and the possibility of taking into account a wide range of risk factors. It is important to identify a significant impact on the volume of international trade in the prices of natural resources and, above all, the price of oil.

Keywords

trade relations, international trade, prices, hydrocarbon feedstock oil, risk factors, econometric model, scenario tree, the Monte Carlo method.

References

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