DOI

10.24411/1728-323X-2018-15070

Section

Geoecology

Title

THE SEQUENCE OF STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN THE DESIGN OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE ARCTIC

Сontributors

V. B. Korobov,  PhD (Geography), Dr. Habil, Director, North-Western branch of P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences; Сhief Researcher, Laboratory of Socio-economic systems modeling, Academician N.P.  Laverov Federal Centre for Integrated Arctic Research, Russian Academy of Sciences; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Arkhangelsk, Russia

A. G. Tutygin, PhD (Physics and Mathematics), Head of the Laboratory of Socio-economic systems modeling, Academician N.P.  Laverov Federal Centre for Integrated Arctic Research, Russian Academy of Sciences; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Arkhangelsk, Russia

L. A. Chizhova, PhD (Economy), Senior Researcher, Laboratory of Socio-economic systems modeling, Academician N.P.  Laverov Federal Centre for Integrated Arctic Research, Russian Academy of Sciences; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; Arkhangelsk, Russia

Abstract

In order to minimize the error of choosing the most cost-effective and environmentally safe alternative when making strategic decisions on the design of transport infrastructure in the Arctic, the authors developed an approach based on consistent decision-making. Evaluation of alternatives is proposed to be carried out in seven stages, involving: the increase in both the number of factors and the complexity of the system with the growth of information support and the stage of pre-investment and investment processes; the introduction of the weighting coefficients of influence of factors and their redistribution applying the procedures in analytical networks.

In the virtual case study of choosing the location of the port along the coastline of the Arctic seas it is shown that the proposed technology allows to take into account the maximum number of options, and to determine the most important of them. The authors draw attention to the problems arising in the application of a phased approach. The main ones are: the complexity of the development of the criterion of indisputable superiority of the alternative-leader over competitors; the issue of complication of the model, if the leading alternative is determined according to the accepted criterion; limited application of the method of analytical networks for multi-criteria evaluation of the possibility of formalization of most of the links between the factors.

Keywords

transport infrastructure, the Arctic, strategic decisions, ranks, weight coefficients

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