10.24411/1728-323X-2019-11103

Economic, social, political and recreational geography

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST (ACCUMULATED) DAMAGE FROM ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

A. L. Novoselov, Ph. D. (Economics), Dr. Habil., Professor, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The actualization of the solution of the problems of ecological rehabilitation of the territories polluted in the past periods requires the creation of numerical methods of economic evaluation of the past (accumulated) damage. The approach of economic assessment of the past damage, developed and tested in practice, which takes into account economic and assimilation factors, requires taking into account the uncertainty of the values of damage from environmental pollution in remote periods from the time of the assessment. To solve this problem, the paper proposes a special approach based on the use of fuzzy triangular numbers to represent the values of damage over the past periods. The use of a fuzzy calculation procedure leads to the determination of the total past (accumulated) damage in the form of a fuzzy number. For the analysis of the received result, it is offered to use the procedure of the construction of the function of degree of confidence in the carried-out assessment of the past damage. The proposed algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.

damage, economic assessment, environmental pollution, absorption, discounting, fuzzy numbers, triangular numbers, degree of confidence.

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